Assessing the potential for crop albedo enhancement in reducing heatwave frequency, duration, and intensity under future climate change

Adapting to the impacts of future warming, and in particular the impacts of heatwaves, is an increasingly important challenge. One proposed strategy is land-surface radiation management via crop albedo enhancement. This has been argued to be an effective method of reducing daily hot temperature extremes regionally. However, the influence of crop albedo enhancement on heatwave events, which last three or more days, is yet to be explored and this remains an important knowledge gap. Using a fully coupled earth system model with 10 ensemble members, we show that crop albedo enhancement by up to ＋0.1 reduces the frequency of heatwave days over Europe and North America by 10 to 20 days; with a larger reduction over Europe under a future climate driven by SSP2-4.5. The average temperature anomaly during heatwaves (the magnitude of the event), is reduced by 0.8 °C to 1.2 °C where the albedo was enhanced, but reductions in mean heatwave duration are limited. There was a marked reduction in the mean annual cumulative heatwave intensity across most of Eurasia and North America, ranging from 32 °C to as high as 80 °C in parts of southern Europe. These changes were largely driven by a reduction in net radiation, decreasing the sensible heat flux, which reduces the maximum temperature, and therefore, heatwave frequency and intensity. These changes were largely localised to where the albedo enhancement was applied with no significant changes in atmospheric circulation or precipitation, which presents advantages for implementation. While our albedo perturbation of up to ＋0.1 is large and represents the likely upper limit of what is possible with more reflective crops, and we assume that more reflective crops are grown everywhere and instantly, these results provide useful guidance to policy makers and farmers on the maximum possible benefits of using more reflective crops in limiting the impacts of heatwaves under future climate

Evaluation of the CABLEv2.3.4 land surface model coupled to NU‐WRFv3.9.1.1 in simulating temperature and precipitation means and extremes over CORDEX AustralAsia within a WRF physics ensemble

The Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model is a third‐generation land surface model (LSM). CABLE is commonly used as a stand‐alone LSM, coupled to the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator global climate model and coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional applications. Here, we evaluate an updated version of CABLE within a WRF physics ensemble over the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) AustralAsia domain. The ensemble consists of different cumulus, radiation and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Simulations are carried out within the NASA Unified WRF modeling framework, NU‐WRF. Our analysis did not identify one configuration that consistently performed the best for all diagnostics and regions. Of the cumulus parameterizations the Grell‐Freitas cumulus scheme consistently overpredicted precipitation, while the new Tiedtke scheme was the best in simulating the timing of precipitation events. For the radiation schemes, the RRTMG radiation scheme had a general warm bias. For the PBL schemes, the YSU scheme had a warm bias, and the MYJ PBL scheme a cool bias. Results are strongly dependent on the region of interest, with the northern tropics and southwest Western Australia being more sensitive to the choice of physics options compared to southeastern Australia which showed less overall variation and overall better performance across the ensemble. Comparisons with simulations using the Unified Noah LSM showed that CABLE in NU‐WRF has a more realistic simulation of evapotranspiration when compared to GLEAM estimates

Incorporating non-stomatal limitation improves the performance of leaf and canopy models at high vapour pressure deficit

Vapour pressure deficit (D) is projected to increase in the future as temperature rises. In response to increased D, stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) are reduced, which may result in significant reductions in terrestrial carbon, water and energy fluxes. It is thus important for gas exchange models to capture the observed responses of gs and A with increasing D. We tested a series of coupled A-gs models against leaf gas exchange measurements from the Cumberland Plain Woodland (Australia), where D regularly exceeds 2 kPa and can reach 8 kPa in summer. Two commonly used A-gs models were not able to capture the observed decrease in A and gs with increasing D at the leaf scale. To explain this decrease in A and gs, two alternative hypotheses were tested: hydraulic limitation (i.e., plants reduce gs and/or A due to insufficient water supply) and non-stomatal limitation (i.e., downregulation of photosynthetic capacity). We found that the model that incorporated a non-stomatal limitation captured the observations with high fidelity and required the fewest number of parameters. Whilst the model incorporating hydraulic limitation captured the observed A and gs, it did so via a physical mechanism that is incorrect. We then incorporated a non-stomatal limitation into the stand model, MAESPA, to examine its impact on canopy transpiration and gross primary production. Accounting for a non-stomatal limitation reduced the predicted transpiration by ~19%, improving the correspondence with sap flow measurements, and gross primary production by ~14%. Given the projected global increases in D associated with future warming, these findings suggest that models may need to incorporate non-stomatal limitation to accurately simulate A and gs in the future with high D. Further data on non-stomatal limitation at high D should be a priority, in order to determine the generality of our results and develop a widely applicable model. © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. was supported by a PhD scholarship from Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University. M.G.D.K. acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023), the ARC Discovery Grant (DP190101823) and support from the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the Nation-building Economic Stimulus Package and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. It is also part of a Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Super-site facility

The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment

Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO2) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth1 5, thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration6. Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO2 fertilization effect on biomass growth3 5, it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO2 in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands7 10, photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO2 without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO2 unclear4,5,7 11. Here using data from the first ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responded to four years of eCO2 exposure. We show that, although the eCO2 treatment of +150 parts per million (+38 per cent) above ambient levels induced a 12 per cent (+247 grams of carbon per square metre per year) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for half of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO2, and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO2 fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km(2) area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Corrigendum to “Assessing the potential for crop albedo enhancement in reducing heatwave frequency, duration, and intensity under future climate change” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 35 (2022) 100415]

The authors regret to inform readers of a typographical error in the last sentence of the conclusion..

Thirty-eight years of CO2 fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems

Climate change is projected to increase the imbalance between the supply (precipitation) and atmospheric demand for water (i.e., increased potential evapotranspiration), stressing plants in water-limited environments. Plants may be able to offset increasing aridity because rising CO2 increases water use efficiency. CO2 fertilization has also been cited as one of the drivers of the widespread “greening” phenomenon. However, attributing the size of this CO2 fertilization effect is complicated, due in part to a lack of long-term vegetation monitoring and interannual- to decadal-scale climate variability. In this study we asked the question of how much CO2 has contributed towards greening. We focused our analysis on a broad aridity gradient spanning eastern Australia's woody ecosystems. Next we analyzed 38 years of satellite remote sensing estimates of vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) to examine the role of CO2 in ameliorating climate change impacts. Multiple statistical techniques were applied to separate the CO2-attributable effects on greening from the changes in water supply and atmospheric aridity. Widespread vegetation greening occurred despite a warming climate, increases in vapor pressure deficit, and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Between 1982–2019 we found that NDVI increased (median 11.3 %) across 90.5 % of the woody regions. After masking disturbance effects (e.g., fire), we statistically estimated an 11.7 % increase in NDVI attributable to CO2, broadly consistent with a hypothesized theoretical expectation of an 8.6 % increase in water use efficiency due to rising CO2. In contrast to reports of a weakening CO2 fertilization effect, we found no consistent temporal change in the CO2 effect. We conclude rising CO2 has mitigated the effects of increasing aridity, repeated record-breaking droughts, and record-breaking heat waves in eastern Australia. However, we were unable to determine whether trees or grasses were the primary beneficiary of the CO2-induced change in water use efficiency, which has implications for projecting future ecosystem resilience. A more complete understanding of how CO2-induced changes in water use efficiency affect trees and non-tree vegetation is needed.Sami W. Rifai, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Lucas A. Cernusak, Patrick Meir, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Andy J. Pitma

Low sensitivity of gross primary production to elevated CO2 in a mature eucalypt woodland

The response of mature forest ecosystems to a rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span) is a major uncertainty in projecting the future trajectory of the Earth's climate. Although leaf-level net photosynthesis is typically stimulated by exposure to elevated span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span (espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span), it is unclear how this stimulation translates into carbon cycle responses at the ecosystem scale. Here we estimate a key component of the carbon cycle, the gross primary productivity (GPP), of a mature native eucalypt forest exposed to free-air span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"CO2/span enrichment (the EucFACE experiment). In this experiment, light-saturated leaf photosynthesis increased by 19andthinsp;% in response to a 38andthinsp;% increase in span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span. We used the process-based forest canopy model, MAESPA, to upscale these leaf-level measurements of photosynthesis with canopy structure to estimate the GPP and its response to espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span. We assessed the direct impact of espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span, as well as the indirect effect of photosynthetic acclimation to espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span and variability among treatment plots using different model scenarios./p At the canopy scale, MAESPA estimated a GPP of 1574andthinsp;gandthinsp;Candthinsp;mspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-2/spanandthinsp;yrspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span under ambient conditions across 4 years and a direct increase in the GPP of span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"+/span11andthinsp;% in response to espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span. The smaller canopy-scale response simulated by the model, as compared with the leaf-level response, could be attributed to the prevalence of RuBP regeneration limitation of leaf photosynthesis within the canopy. Photosynthetic acclimation reduced this estimated response to 10andthinsp;%. After taking the baseline variability in the leaf area index across plots in account, we estimated a field GPP response to espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span of 6andthinsp;% with a 95andthinsp;% confidence interval (span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-/span2andthinsp;%, 14andthinsp;%). These findings highlight that the GPP response of mature forests to espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span is likely to be considerably lower than the response of light-saturated leaf photosynthesis. Our results provide an important context for interpreting the espan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"iC/ia/span responses of other components of the ecosystem carbon cycle. © Author(s) 2020.Martin G. De Kauwe was supported by the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program (RAAP). Euc-FACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the Nation Building Economic Stimulus Plan and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University

Identifying areas at risk of drought-induced tree mortality across South-Eastern Australia

South-East Australia has recently been subjected to two of the worst droughts in the historical record (Millennium Drought, 2000–2009 and Big Dry, 2017–2019). Unfortunately, a lack of forest monitoring has made it difficult to determine whether widespread tree mortality has resulted from these droughts. Anecdotal observations suggest the Big Dry may have led to more significant tree mortality than the Millennium drought. Critically, to be able to robustly project future expected climate change effects on Australian vegetation, we need to assess the vulnerability of Australian trees to drought. Here we implemented a model of plant hydraulics into the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. We parameterized the drought response behaviour of five broad vegetation types, based on a common garden dry-down experiment with species originating across a rainfall gradient (188–1,125 mm/year) across South-East Australia. The new hydraulics model significantly improved (~35%–45% reduction in root mean square error) CABLE’s previous predictions of latent heat fluxes during periods of water stress at two eddy covariance sites in Australia. Landscape-scale predictions of the greatest percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) of about 40%–60%, were broadly consistent with satellite estimates of regions of the greatest change in both droughts. In neither drought did CABLE predict that trees would have reached critical PLC in widespread areas (i.e. it projected a low mortality risk), although the model highlighted critical levels near the desert regions of South-East Australia where few trees live. Overall, our experimentally constrained model results imply significant resilience to drought conferred by hydraulic function, but also highlight critical data and scientific gaps. Our approach presents a promising avenue to integrate experimental data and make regional-scale predictions of potential drought-induced hydraulic failure.Martin G. De Kauwe, Belinda E. Medlyn, Anna M. Ukkola, Mengyuan Mu, Manon E. B. Sabot, Andrew J. Pitman, Patrick Meir, Lucas A. Cernusak, Sami W. Rifai, Brendan Choat, David T. Tissue, Chris J. Blackman, Ximeng Li, Michael Roderick, Peter R. Brigg